Love your commentary & would be really interested in your thoughts.
"We expect that in September and/or October, unemployment will rise...because more people are getting nervous about the darkening recession clouds on the horizon (perhaps real or maybe just imagined) and are jumping off the sidelines into the job market to lock in a job before the possible storm hits."
Sorry, did you mean *employment* would rise (and unemployment rate would fall) b/c more potential employees would lock in a job before the storm hits?
Also, that dynamic makes complete sense, but is there anyway to falsify whether or not that's actually why more employees would be agreeing to jump off the sidelines now?
Ukel - I did actually mean that the unemployment rate is likely to rise as more people enter the job market to begin looking for a job due to the growing anxiety about a recession. The unemployment rate is calculated by only counting people as being unemployed if they are actively looking for a job. So if more people enter the job market, unemployment could go up because there are more people actively looking for work. That rise would appear to be a negative (and it would be if the rise was due to layoffs, for example), but it would actually be a positive step in creating more balance between labor demand and labor supply.
Ukel - Yes, there are a number of ways we can track changes to job vacancies over time. We track edits and revisions to individual openings themselves, we track in extensive detail the trends of individual employers, we track how long openings are posted (what we cal 'Duration'), and we track openings by occupation, skill, sector, geography, and country, etc. As such, we do track how companies have changed the way they post job openings over the past 15 years.
Love your commentary & would be really interested in your thoughts.
"We expect that in September and/or October, unemployment will rise...because more people are getting nervous about the darkening recession clouds on the horizon (perhaps real or maybe just imagined) and are jumping off the sidelines into the job market to lock in a job before the possible storm hits."
Sorry, did you mean *employment* would rise (and unemployment rate would fall) b/c more potential employees would lock in a job before the storm hits?
Also, that dynamic makes complete sense, but is there anyway to falsify whether or not that's actually why more employees would be agreeing to jump off the sidelines now?
Ukel - I did actually mean that the unemployment rate is likely to rise as more people enter the job market to begin looking for a job due to the growing anxiety about a recession. The unemployment rate is calculated by only counting people as being unemployed if they are actively looking for a job. So if more people enter the job market, unemployment could go up because there are more people actively looking for work. That rise would appear to be a negative (and it would be if the rise was due to layoffs, for example), but it would actually be a positive step in creating more balance between labor demand and labor supply.
Thanks!
A related question that a friend brought up to me - is there any way to see if employers have *changed* the way they use job postings?
E.g. potentially leaving postings up longer for remote positions, which can be filled even if a local office is closed
Ukel - Yes, there are a number of ways we can track changes to job vacancies over time. We track edits and revisions to individual openings themselves, we track in extensive detail the trends of individual employers, we track how long openings are posted (what we cal 'Duration'), and we track openings by occupation, skill, sector, geography, and country, etc. As such, we do track how companies have changed the way they post job openings over the past 15 years.