With Labor Demand Dropping Again in May, LinkUp Forecasting Job Gains of 157,000.

Job openings rose 6% in Q1 but have dropped 5% since and the job market has been materially out of balance since December.

We’ll publish our commentary around the U.S. job market this weekend, but we want to get our data and NFP forecast for May out as quickly as possible.

Total job openings in the U.S. fell 4% in May and have declined 5% since the end of Q1 and 11% since November.

Job openings dropped in May in every state except New Mexico where labor demand increased a scant 0.7%.

Labor demand dropped in all but 3 sectors (Public Administration, Wholesale Trade, & Construction)...

…and all but 4 Occupations (Education, Personal Care, Protective Services, and Production).

Labor demand declined in both services and manufacturing….

…and for both blue and white collar jobs.

Looking at our mid-month time series (the input into our NFP forecasting model), U.S. Job openings dropped 6% between the 20th of April to the 19th of May.

So based on our data, we are forecasting a net gain of 157,000 jobs in May - slightly above consensus but below April’s initial release of 177,000.

Most importantly, the U.S. job market has been materially out of balance since December and it’s nearly impossible to think of any factors that would lead one to believe that labor demand is going to rise anytime soon.

As we mentioned at the outset, we’ll publish our broader commentary this weekend after Friday’s jobs release for May.