10 Predictions Around the Job Market and the U.S. Economy in a Cataclysmic 2025
The U.S. economy will degenerate into mild stagflation with anemic growth, unemployment climbing to 5%, inflation persisting, and no cuts from the Fed
Just under the wire (or maybe even a bit overdue), we’re finally publishing our 10 predictions for 2025. We’ll be evaluating and self-grading our 2024 predictions and providing a bit more color of what we expect in the coming year in the next week or so, but for now, here’s our list of 10 predictions for 2025 along with, just as we did last year, a bonus prediction.
The U.S. will add a net gain of 1.6M jobs in 2025
Labor demand for the year will be flat to slightly down
Unemployment at year-end will be 5%
Inflation will remain higher than consensus all year
Begrudging acceptance will grow that 3% inflation is the new normal
The Fed will not lower rates all year
The economy will degenerate into mild stagflation with, at best, 1% GDP growth
Inflation will no longer be viewed as a measure of the economy’s ‘heat’
Quality of and regard for official government data will continue to erode
Global chaos, led by complete insanity in Washington, will surpass expectations
Whatever the consensus view is on how seriously at risk democracy is in the United States, even as it rises over time, we’ll take the over
Good times.
Yikes!